Ask what happens after what happens

First-order thinking stops at the obvious result. Second-order thinking asks what the result invites next.

A discount raises sales this month and trains customers to wait. A hire solves a bottleneck and creates a management load. A public metric focuses a team and quietly discards unmeasured work.

Before a decision, write two columns: immediate effect, later effect. If the later column is empty, you have not finished thinking.